The Black Swan Of Cairo

Earlier this afternoon I was reading a short paper that was recently published called, “The Black Swan Of Cairo.” I was also thinking and contemplating about what I was going to write today. Even though the paper I was reading was looking at the impact of governmental policy, foreign-policy and its unintended consequences, I was struck by some of the conclusions of the writers and how they applied to understanding women.

The paper was looking at the failure of the Obama administration and many other foreign governments to predict the Arab Spring due to their, “misunderstanding of complex systems and the bad policies involved.” Men who struggle with women, struggle because they simply do not understand the complex but simple nature of women. In the investing world, a “Black Swan” event is an event that sets off a series of cascading and unforeseen negative events that negatively impact an investment.

A “Black Swan” event that happens in your dating or relationship life, results in the end of your relationship or dating with a specific woman. When you have a “Black Swan” event that ends a relationship before you were ready to end it, the pain can be unbearable. The key to avoiding pain in your relationships and interactions with women you really care about, is to learn to understand the creature you are dealing with. Women are emotional beings, and therefore unpredictable. If you try to get in the way of a woman’s unpredictability, she will run from you like the plague. Control is an illusion. Trying to control or logically corral a woman into doing what you want, will always end with some kind of unpleasant and emotionally upsetting “Black Swan” event.

I had an unexpected “Black Swan” event that led to the end of a relationship with a woman I really loved once. I ignored the signs that she was upset and things were bubbling just below the surface. Anger was building inside of my girlfriend. Her way of trying to get my attention was to rub another man in my face at a family get-together. I was angry, hurt and I walked away. I ignored the red flags that were there because I was in love. She blew up at me unexpectedly on the phone when everything had seemed just fine in the weeks leading up to the “Black Swan” event. On the phone call she said she was going to bring another guy to the family get-together. I thought she was bluffing because she was hurt. I was wrong.

When I was single during my 20s, I was constantly talking women who really liked me initially, right out of going on dates with me. I had no idea what I was saying to blow my chances at the time. I tell guys they need to get to know the information in my book so well they could literally give a seminar on the subject. Since human beings only retain about 10% of what we see and hear, it takes reading my book 10 to 15 times to really get the information and learn all of the hundreds of signs and tells that reveal what a woman is really thinking and feeling about you. If you don’t know the material, you will make unnecessary mistakes that can lead to an undesired “Black Swan” event in your dating/relationship life.

When I had dates set up, I always felt like I needed to be doing something to make things happen. Another interesting point brought up in the paper is what’s called an, “Action Bias.” An “Action Bias” is “the illusion that doing something is always better than doing nothing.” Even though I had dates planned, I would call just to talk to the women I had dates set up with. I felt like I had to do something to get them to like me. All I really had to do, was nothing, but show up to pick her up for the date once it had been set. In the days prior to the date, I did not know at the time that a woman’s level of interest in me would be going up the less I talked to her. I had no idea that women get on the phone and talk to all of their girlfriends about the date, what they should wear, where they think he will take her, etc. which causes her interest level in him to go up when he is doing nothing!

What was the conclusion that the paper drew? That, “there is no stability without volatility.” Basically what politicians and their foreign-policy decisions have tried to do is prevent volatility in the banking system, unstable governments overseas, etc. What happens is things get artificially suppressed. When people’s emotions or freedoms are suppressed (especially a woman’s), all it takes is a “Black Swan” event to unleash chaos. For decades the policy of Western governments has been to support corrupt and dictatorial regimes that oppress their people in the interest of stability. The problem with that approach is that things easily spiral out of control unexpectedly and cause unintended consequences, and most importantly more instability than if they would have not interfered at all! So how does this relate to women? Well, in my article “girls just want to have fun”, I talk about how you must let a woman come and go as she pleases. If you try to interfere with that, you will cause a “Black Swan” event and she will reject you.

In the article I published yesterday on billionaire hedge fund trader Kyle Bass, I updated the article this morning with a fantastic hour-long video that is only available on YouTube. He mentioned the article below “The Black Swan Of Cairo” as the best thing he’s read all year. As a life and peak performance coach, I’m always reading, watching and learning from the best coaches, leaders, Doctors, experts, CEO’s, teachers, gurus, etc. in the world. That’s how I keep my edge over my competition. Relentless preparation, learning and implementation. If you want to become a better tennis player, golfer, etc. you must play with people who are way better than you if you want to become great. If you want to become a more successful man, then learn from people who are more successful than you are, and apply what you learn so you can get the same results. This paper was prepared for the Council on Foreign Relations and is a fantastic, but short read of only eight pages. It’s well worth your time:  The Black Swan of Cairo

“Winners, I am convinced, imagine their dreams first. They want it with all their heart & expect it to come true. There is, I believe, no other way to live.” – Joe Montana